## Long descriptions for some figures in Legal Probabilism

### Figure 6 description

The diagram consists of eight nodes:

• node 1 labeled “Scenario” which has arrows pointing to
• node 2 labeled “Guilt” which is an end point
• node 3 labeled “State/event 1” with arrows pointing to
• node 4 labeled “Evidence 1” which is an end point
• node 5 labeled “State/event 2” which has arrows pointing to
• node 6 labeled “Evidence 2” which is an end point
• node 7 labeled “State/event 3” which has an arrow pointing to
• node 8 labeled “Evidence 3” which is an end point
• node 5 State/event 2 mentioned above
• node 7 State/event 3 mentioned above

### Figure 7 description

The diagram consists of eight nodes:

• node 1 labeled “A.cause” which has arrows pointing to
• node 2 labeled “A.bruising” which is an end point
• node 3 labeled “A.disease” which is an end point
• node 4 labeled “B.cause” with arrows pointing to
• node 5 labeled “B.bruising” which is an end point
• node 6 labeled “B.disease” which is an end point
• node 7 labeled “No.murdered” which has an arrow pointing to
• node 8 labeled “Guilty” which is an end point
• node 7 No.murdered mentioned above

### Figure 8 description

The first graph is titled “Expected decision costs: Equal costs of false positives and false negatives”. The $$x$$-axis is labeled “$$\Pr(\text{liability}\pmid\text{evidence}$$” and ranges from 0.0 to 1.0. The $$y$$-axis is labeled “Expected cost” and ranges from 0.00 to 1.00. A vertical blue dot-dash line is at the $$x$$ value 0.5 and is labeled “threshold”. A dotted straight line goes from (0.0,0.00) to (1.0,1.00) and is labeled “false negatives”. A solid straight line goes from (0.0,1.00) to (1.0,0.00) and is labeled “false positives”. The intersection is at (0.5,0.50).

The second graph is very similar to the first except it is titled “Expected decision costs: Costs ratio=9, false positive cost=1”. In addition the threshold line is at the $$x$$ value 0.9; the false negatives line goes from (0.0,0.00) to 1.0 and a $$y$$ value about 0.11; the false positives line is the same [(0.0,1.00) to (1.0,0.00)]. The intersection of the two lines is at (0.9,0.10).